He does not guess.
He reads.
A launch leaves a trail on the chain: who created it, who bought in the first seconds, where the creator's tokens went. The rat follows that trail and repeats what it says, in words anyone can read.
First, how a pons launch works.
You need this to read a report. It takes one minute.
A curve holds everything
The creator deploys a token. The whole supply, one billion, goes to a bonding curve. Nobody holds anything yet.
Five taxed seconds
For 5 seconds, buying costs a snipe tax that starts at 99% and decays to zero. Wallets the creator exempted before launch skip it.
Buys and sells on the curve
Everyone trades against the curve. Each trade pays a 1% fee, plus a creator tax if the creator set one.
A locked pool
When the curve sells out (4.2 ETH by default), the liquidity moves to a Uniswap v4 pool and is locked for good.
Fewer than one launch in a hundred graduates. Most of what the rat reports happens in steps 2 and 3, long before a pool exists.
Four sources. All public. All live.
The launch record
The launchpad factory keeps one record per token: its curve, the wallet that launched it, the wallet that receives the fees, the creator tax, and the phase it is in. One read gives the rat the cast of characters.
The curve's trade log
Every buy on the curve is an event with the buyer, the amount and the fee paid. The rat reads the first 5 seconds after launch and the list of wallets exempted from the snipe tax.
The creator wallet's transfers
Every token that entered or left the launching wallet since the launch block. If the wallet is empty, the rat finds the last transfer out and tells you how long after launch it happened.
The token's transfer log and the explorer's search
Every balance is rebuilt from the transfers, with the curve, the pool and the locker set aside. The explorer's search gives the other tokens using the same ticker or name.
Loud, note, quiet.
The marks are reading aids. They sort the file so the facts most buyers ask about come first. They are not a rating and they never add up to a score.
■ Loud
A fact most buyers want before anything else. The dev wallet is empty. A handful of wallets took a large share in the first 5 seconds. Ten wallets hold most of the supply.
▲ Note
Worth a look, depends on context. A creator tax. A few exempt wallets. A launch that is minutes old. A wallet with several earlier launches.
● Quiet
Nothing unusual on that point. The dev still holds. No extra exemptions. Liquidity locked. Quiet is not a promise, it is the absence of a finding.
The exact threshold behind every mark is published in the docs.
The limits, stated plainly.
- Unlinked wallets. The rat follows the launching wallet and the wallets the creator declared exempt. A creator who buys from a fresh wallet with no on-chain link leaves nothing to follow.
- Intent. A transfer out of the dev wallet is a fact. Whether it was a sale, a move to a safer wallet or a gift is not on the chain. When the tokens went back to the curve the rat says "sold". Otherwise he says "sold or moved".
- Tokens launched elsewhere. The full report needs a pons v2 launch record. Other tokens get the name, the holders and the copies.
- Very long histories. The public RPC caps how much history one request returns. For a token with a huge transfer history, part of a check can be missing. When that happens the file says so under "What the rat could not see".
- The future. A report describes the block it was read at. A dev who holds now can sell in the next block. Run it again before you act.
